Modelling the Abatement and System-Value of Press-Mud Bio-CNG Hubs and Urban Organic-Waste Co-Digestion in Bihar (2026–2030)

Bihar's sugar industry and urban wet waste streams present a combined opportunity for low carbon gaseous fuel. We estimate the techno economics, life cycle abatement, and system value of sugar mill anchored co digestion hubs (press mud + urban organics) using only public datasets and a Validated Secondary Data (VSD) Approach that preserves analytical rigour in a low data context. At a representative scale of ~50 t CBG day⁻¹, the levelised cost (LCOCBG) is ~₹ 31.4 kg⁻¹ (range ₹ 28–₹ 35 kg⁻¹ under total project capex ±20%). Net mitigation is ~5.1 t CO₂e t⁻¹ CBG, giving ~84 kt CO₂e yr⁻¹ per hub. At current offtake prices, the financial marginal abatement cost is negative (~–USD 56 tCO₂e⁻¹), indicating cost saving abatement. The societal system value is dominated by fuel import savings and methane avoidance (~₹ 2.60 billion yr⁻¹ per hub), with grid flexibility as a complementary co benefit. The VSD Approach demonstrates replicable, policy grade analysis for data scarce regions and supports a 2026–2030 rollout of industrial–municipal co digestion hubs in Bihar and comparable states.