When Electrification Increases Emissions: Carbon Lock-in Risks in Power-Constrained Systems

This research investigates the emissions impacts of large-scale electrification under constrained generation and network conditions. It demonstrates that premature or poorly sequenced electrification can increase fossil generation and induce carbon lock-in unless coordinated with demand flexibility and clean supply expansion. The paper proposes a sequencing framework to ensure electrification aligns with long-term decarbonisation goals.